Stock Market

[CenWaSS]

So how about it, how LOW do you think the market is going to go? Anyone worried yet...???? I see many businesses and or industries laying off left and right if not closing the doors. So whats your opinion, how does the future look for us?

[zanis520]

i hope it goes even lower. im gonna buy in super cheap and make a killing once it goes back up

[Black2003SS]

Its only the end of the beginning. The economy overall will get much worse. Right now, the problems are spreading to the dealerships and auto industry as far as credit goes. A record number of auto dealerships (new and used ones) will go out of business this year and next. Dealerships cant get short term credit anymore to purchase inventory to sell and when they can, they cant sell anything because credit restrictions have tightened up. A dealerships no credit no problem is a problem now. They used to approve on average about 80-90% of the people who walked through the door (perhaps unfavorable terms, but approved nonetheless). Now they can barely approve 50%. Granted, some of those people should have never had loans in the first place, but it hurts.

 

Furthermore, this issue applies to all industries that function on some form of credit. It will get much worse. Probably almost, but not quite, as bad as the great depression. We will see 10% unemployment before the end of next year unless some miracle happens.

[lilmarv1117]

its doesnt help the economy when corp. execs does S*it like this......http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081008/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_aig

 

there goes the taxpayers' money down the tube

[Krambo]

i hope it goes even lower. im gonna buy in super cheap and make a killing once it goes back up

 

[SSThunder]

gas needs to drop a couple dollars, then things would get a lot better. The cost of everything has doubled because of stupid high gas prices. If OPEC goes through with a cut in production to protect their wallets, they will end up screwing theirselves in the end. New cars and trucks that run on electric will flood the market.

[billsws6]

it looks like we are on the verge of a depresion. it is getting scary with banks not lending you are going to see alot of businesses close up. we better start changing our spending habits, if this is a really cold winter and oil doesnt go down money will be really tight through winter. it is gonna get much worse before it gets better. which ever candidate gets elected he is facing one of the toughest economies since the great depression!

[CoolBlueSS]

Its only the end of the beginning. The economy overall will get much worse. Right now, the problems are spreading to the dealerships and auto industry as far as credit goes. A record number of auto dealerships (new and used ones) will go out of business this year and next. Dealerships cant get short term credit anymore to purchase inventory to sell and when they can, they cant sell anything because credit restrictions have tightened up. A dealerships no credit no problem is a problem now. They used to approve on average about 80-90% of the people who walked through the door (perhaps unfavorable terms, but approved nonetheless). Now they can barely approve 50%. Granted, some of those people should have never had loans in the first place, but it hurts.

 

Furthermore, this issue applies to all industries that function on some form of credit. It will get much worse. Probably almost, but not quite, as bad as the great depression. We will see 10% unemployment before the end of next year unless some miracle happens.

Most dealerships sell on consignment. Very few own their inventory, and most of the ones that do own it outright. Besides, the real money isn't made up front, it's in the back. They could shut down the sales dept, and the parts/service/bodyshop could keep a dealer afloat.

[sprayed99]

It has been a bear market for the last 8 months. But we are still a ways off from where the market was 5 years ago. With prices of oil dropping some things will get cheaper. We have been is a recession the last year. The market will continue to tank to what end noone knows and wont know until we hit that point. My life revolves around the investment world. I have to watch the markets all day everyday. It is not hurting my business and wont until we are below 40.00 BBL oil. Many folks are panicking and pulling from the market which in turn drives it lower and lower on a minute by minute basis. The best thing to do right now is sit tight and hope for the best. With all the BS loans that were given to folks that didn't deserve it. then major company purchasing these loan at pennies on the dollar most of the big institutions deserve what they are getting now, but it is costing many many individuals their jobs and maybe more. Just sit back and enjoy the roller coaster ride its gonna be an interesting one for sure.

Edited October 8, 2008 by sprayed99 (see edit history)

[sprayed99]

gas needs to drop a couple dollars, then things would get a lot better. The cost of everything has doubled because of stupid high gas prices. If OPEC goes through with a cut in production to protect their wallets, they will end up screwing theirselves in the end. New cars and trucks that run on electric will flood the market.

 

 

OPEC hasnt had full control in over 3 years. Their hands are tied and whatever they do cant help us or hurt us at this point.

[CenWaSS]

Just sit back and enjoy the roller coaster ride its gonna be an interesting one for sure.

 

 

I hate roller coaster rides

 

So far Ive been fortunate, job is going well and no layoffs r closures in sight. Investments on the other hand are in the toilet, I continuing buying and loosing money Sounds crazy, I know. Hopefully the buy low theory pans out

 

I seen this well known financial guy talking on TV (about his experience) purchasing a home recently and the routine 20% down had now increased to 45%.

[Black2003SS]

Most dealerships sell on consignment. Very few own their inventory, and most of the ones that do own it outright. Besides, the real money isn't made up front, it's in the back. They could shut down the sales dept, and the parts/service/bodyshop could keep a dealer afloat.

 

I understand and agree with you about the back end parts and service keeping some dealerships afloat. Please notice I never said ALL dealerships. However, a record number will go out of business because of purchasing inventory on credit, which is probably more common than you might think. It is often referred to as floorplanning. I would guess that you have, do, or know someone who does work at a dealership that operates on consignment or owning inventory outright. That dealership will most likely survive. There are thousands of dealerships that do not have those arrangements for inventory. Many of those are having credit problems and many will go out of business. Personally, I always felt that there were too many around to begin with. Imagine the used cars on these dealers lots that will be repossessed by the commercial lenders and flooded to the market, driving down used car pricing (not msrp new).

 

And one of many sources to back up what I am saying...

 

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/30/autos/car_..._pain/index.htm

 

With sales down, auto dealers who carry large inventories are experiencing their own credit squeeze.

 

"The cost of doing business is going up," said Mike Jackson, chief executive of AutoNation, the country's largest car dealership chain. "Especially on floorplanning with domestics."

 

"Floorplanning" is the line of credit dealers use to pay for their inventory. Domestic-brand auto dealers who carry large inventories will be among the first to die, Jackson predicts.

 

Floorplan loans become burdensome the longer cars go unsold. For the first three months a car is in inventory, interest on the floorplan loan is usually reimbursed by the manufacturer. Later, if a vehicle is still there after about six months, finance companies can start demanding payment on the principal on the loan.

 

As credit markets have tightened, GMAC and Chrysler Credit have raised interest rates and what are called "curtailment" costs, the cost of having vehicles in inventory for a long time, according to reports in the industry newspaper Automotive News. (GMAC and Chrysler credit would not confirm those reports.)

 

"When you're scrambling with cash flow like this, it's 'How are we going to pay these costs?'" said California dealer Fitzpatrick, who finances his inventory through GMAC.

 

Many dealers have learned to operate with leaner inventories, said Iowa's McEleney.

 

"When a dealer is called upon to pay down $100,000 to $200,000 in inventory they have to look to other outlets," said McEleney. Those other "other outlets," other credit sources to draw from to pay curtailment costs, are no longer easily accessible, he said.

 

Finance companies have an incentive not to squeeze high-performing dealers too hard, McEleney said. Pushing away a good car dealer means driving away a lot of potential consumer auto loans.

 

"Historically, that's been a very desirable piece of business from a lender's standpoint," he said.

 

That gives big, multi-store dealers more bargaining clout with lenders, said NADA economist Taylor. For example, Asbury Automotive, a large national dealer chain, recently announced that it had locked in a line of credit with several banks. Smaller dealers can't do that and their interest rates have been fluctuating widely, said Taylor.

 

Squeezing dealers on curtailment costs can be a way for manufactures and their affiliated auto finance companies to weed out dealers they see as underperforming, Fitzpatrick said. GMAC has been scrutinizing his dealership's finances more closely, he said. (GMAC could not immediately comment on Fitzpatrick's complaints. A spokewoman for General Motors said GM plays no role in floorplan financing.)

 

"The big question is 'Who's going to be left standing?" he said.

[diggerdan11]

the economy is not as bad as it seems. The stock market will always have to good times and always have the bad times. We have been very lucky over the last ten years or so with low gas prices and low interest rates and a booming housing market, but all good things must come to and end. We have not had a major recession since 1987 (not including the stock market tank after 9/11 which we recovered from). The 1987 recession was much worse but because of the mass media now a days, everyone is making it out to be worse than it really is. We are just going to have to adjust our spending. Things will always get worse before they get better, and it will get better. It may take a few years but it will.